Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
